China, a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council that Flagrantly Violates Sanctions Against North Korea, Must Step Up Military Assistance to Russia
Xi Jinping’s Fishing Gains in Russia, Which Becomes “Big North Korea” as a Result of the War in Ukraine
Article on April 12th,by Taro Iwata
About Taro Iwata (Journalist in the U.S. Mr. Iwata studied the fundamentals of financial and economic reporting at the Tokyo Bureau of NBC News, the English-language newspaper division of the Yomiuri Shimbun, the Nikkei International News Center, and elsewhere. Currently, he publishes articles with broad and deep analysis of the U.S. economy in print media such as The Weekly Economist and Diamond Chain Store, while also contributing to multi-channel web media such as Business+IT and Japan In-Depth. He has also conducted lengthy interviews with major international figures, and his areas of expertise include writing and translating articles on finance, macroeconomics, energy, and corporate analysis. He also provides a wide range of analysis of society, including international politics, child rearing, education, justice, and crime. He strives to provide “analysis that is one step ahead of the times.)
The brutality of Russia, led by President Vladimir Putin, which has invaded neighboring Ukraine, is increasingly highlighted by massacres in towns near the capital, Kiev. Any country that sides with Russia could be seen as complicit in the genocide.
What is of interest here is the true intentions of China, which pretends to be neutral. Most China watchers in Japan see the Zhongnanhai region (the area in Beijing where the residences of key Communist Party officials are concentrated) as being “perplexed,” “bewildered,” and “distressed.
For example, former House of Representatives member Hideyuki Tanaka commented, “I can sense a sense of perplexity in China’s recent moves. It also seems to be upset about the Bucha disaster, although it is standing on Russia’s side,” he expressed the view that “China’s recent moves seem to be perplexing.
Critic Shi Hei also pointed out that the order in which Russia’s name appears in media reports under the Chinese Communist Party has been downgraded, and the expression “overall strategic cooperative partnership” pledged to Russia has also been sealed, thereby indicating that “China has made a turnaround from its position as a complicit in Putin’s war, and is gradually beginning to distance itself from Russia. It argued that “China has gradually begun to distance itself from Russia,” and that “it has no intention of riding a losing horse.
Ke Ryu, chief researcher at the Tokyo Foundation Institute for Policy Studies, added, “It is an obvious fact that China’s economy is dependent on developed countries (consisting of Europe, the U.S., and Japan). Based on the premise that “it is impossible to form an alliance with Russia without it,” he states that “the true intention of the Xi Jinping administration is to improve relations with the United States.
Indeed, the CCP has avoided officially announcing a clear position in order to ensure maximum flexibility in its policy toward Russia. This appears to be the Communist Party leadership’s struggle to think rationally and maintain a neutral position. However, the author takes the position that the CCP’s true intentions are not so straightforward or rational.
Rationality is not the leader’s mens rea.
This is because the most important issue for authoritarian states such as China, Russia, and North Korea is the preservation of the leader’s dignity, or authority itself, which takes precedence over any national interest, reason, or rationality. This is because it is a core issue that takes precedence over any national interest, reason, or rationality.
Putin’s decision to go to war cannot be explained in terms of Russia’s national interest, sustainability, or rationality. However, when analyzed from the perspective of Russia’s state and inherent structure of dictatorship, it reveals “the need for an outlet for domestic contradictions in order to protect the leadership,” making the start of war no longer a mystery.
Similarly, if the Xi Jinping administration’s military assistance to Russia, which has been the focus of much attention, is analyzed not from the rationality of “China’s position in the international community” but from the perspective of the most important intrinsic issues of the CCP, namely “the preservation of Xi Jinping’s authority as the core of the party” and “the great restoration of the Chinese nation that the leader will accomplish,” it is possible to accurately predict China’s future actions. China’s actions in the future can be accurately predicted.
Extremely Clear Chinese Actions in Support of Russia
Basically, the campaign to restore imperial Russia’s lost ground is in tandem with the campaign to restore imperial China’s lost ground. Therefore, while the economic benefits of maintaining good relations with the West are of course important, when faced with the choice between “the Chinese dream” and “the awareness of Russia’s special mission for the world,” which is more important, it is the latter that Chinese and Russian leaders will choose without hesitation.
In addition, in light of China’s declaration of its hegemonic ambitions in the international community over the past decade or so, its support in broad daylight for North Korea’s violation of economic sanctions, and its consistent refusal to condemn Russia over the situation in Ukraine, it seems inevitable that China will militarily support Russia at this juncture. There is no room for such indulgent sentiments as “bewilderment” and “anguish.
In fact, China wholeheartedly endorses, supports, and is complicit in Russia’s acts of aggression.
For example, the CCP-affiliated media has reported the massacre in Bucha as “fake” and fully supports Russia’s claims. It also turned against the UN General Assembly when it adopted a resolution on April 7 to suspend Russia’s membership in the UN Human Rights Council. It is noteworthy that this was not even an “abstention” vote, a sign of intent to feign neutrality.
In addition, at China’s April 1 summit with the European Union, President Xi Jinping “did not want to talk about human rights and other issues in Ukraine” and seemed “not to listen” to European concerns, according to the testimony of Josep Borel, Vice President of the European Commission and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security.
Furthermore, according to an analysis by Western intelligence sources, “China is providing Russia with food, communications equipment, and other non-weaponry items,” according to a March 31 Jiji Press article from London.
In the words of Zhang Jun, China’s ambassador to the UN, “China strongly hopes for an early ceasefire in Ukraine,” and “There is only one goal that we sincerely yearn for, and that is peace. China supports the development of dialogue between Europe, Russia, the United States, and NATO” (President Xi Jinping), while in reality China is complicit in atrocities by supporting Russian genocide.
These words and actions reveal the clarity and consistency of the Chinese leadership’s resolve, not “bewilderment,” “embarrassment,” or “anguish,” and efforts are being concentrated on how to better conceal its outspoken support for Russia.
Xi Jinping a Potential Game Changer in the Ukraine War
Russia, which is struggling in Ukraine, has repeatedly asked China to provide it with weapons such as surface-to-air missiles, drones, intelligence equipment, armored fighting vehicles, and logistical support vehicles, but there is no evidence so far that the Chinese have responded, according to Western sources.
However, the military of Ukraine, an adversary that receives Western arms supplies, is rapidly shifting from the former Soviet Union’s military operating system, including weapons, to a more superior NATO-type system, and the worn-out Russian military is urgently seeking to modernize and strengthen its weapons in response.
However, due to behavioral changes in European countries that are reducing their dependence on Russian energy, “Russian funds (from the sale of resources) will be reduced, and President Putin will have to choose between supporting the economy and investing in the war in Ukraine,” said Adewal Adeyemo, US Undersecretary of the Treasury.
In this context, it is likely that supplies essential to the operation, such as missiles, ammunition, and fuel, will approach exhaustion in early May, and the devastating effects of Western financial sanctions are expected to begin in early June. In this context, the suggestion that “Russia will decline” (EU President Urszula von der Leyen) carries weight.
After its military suffered a major blow when it failed to seize control of the northern part of Ukraine around Kiev, Russia, which has newly increased its military strength to 60,000 troops consisting of reservists and new recruits, is now ready to launch an all-out attack on eastern Ukraine, and military support from China, its ally, is no longer “necessary” but “indispensable.
Incidentally, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a Swedish think tank, China’s weapons production will surpass that of Russia in 2019, rising to second place in the world after the United States. It is the world’s fifth largest arms exporter. There are a wide range of potential “game changers” that China could supply, including military drones, which Russia wants in this war, as well as missiles.
As President Xi Jinping, he absolutely cannot afford to let Russia lose. If Russia, the “comrade” behind him, is destabilized, China’s military actions to embark on sole domination of the Western Pacific region will be constrained. This means that it will become difficult for China to maintain its own power, which is inextricably linked to the “great restoration of the Chinese nation.
So China’s supply of weapons to Russia will take place (and may already be underway). China has a “record” of repeatedly and flagrantly violating Security Council sanctions in its support for North Korea, despite the fact that it is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Therefore, even at the risk of being subject to secondary sanctions from the U.S. and other Western nations, there is a high probability that it will support Russia.
Sanctions Breaking by China, a Permanent Member of the Security Council
In considering the possibility of Chinese arms transfers to Russia, we can cite one example that illustrates the reality that private companies and individuals with the Communist Party of China’s breathing room are behind a large-scale international arms smuggling scheme. It took the form of side support for arms exports from North Korea.
The story goes like this. The Everbright 88, an arms smuggling vessel registered in Sierra Leone and controlled by North Korea, was blacklisted under UN Security Council Resolution 2270, adopted in March 2016.
However, as early as December of the same year, it was removed from the list by China’s claim that the vessel had no crew members of North Korean nationality on board and had no close ties to North Korea. Since there is no deep relationship between the nationality of the crew and the actual operation of the vessel, China’s discourse is not convincing, but the Security Council’s Panel of Experts on the North Korea Sanctions Committee was defeated by the aggressive pressure that is China’s specialty.
However, the vessel was operated on paper by a Hong Kong company called Baili Ship Trading Co. and its owner was a Chinese national named Zhang Qiao, according to Rio Byrne, an analyst with “North Korea News.
And while China was plotting to remove the “Everbright 88” owned by Zhang from the UN sanctions list, Zhang, a Chinese national, attempted to smuggle North Korean-made rockets to Egypt using another ship, the Cambodian-registered “Jie Shun”.
In addition, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported in September 2021 that China has been engaged in a series of sabotage efforts to nullify the UN sanctions on North Korea.
Specifically, China has given only cursory answers to questions from the Security Council Panel of Experts regarding dummy companies and ships used by North Korea to circumvent sanctions and advance its nuclear ballistic missile development program, such as “It is difficult to crack down on them because they are private companies,” and has also prevented investigations of ships suspected of violating sanctions within Chinese territorial waters. China’s behavior has changed since the 2000s.
This pattern of Chinese behavior has remained unchanged since the 2000s, and is likely to be repeated in Russia’s provision of weapons for an attack on Ukraine. Xi Jinping is not afraid of secondary sanctions.
China’s Accomplishments in Supporting “Settlement
Given the fact that China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has habitually and deliberately violated Security Council sanctions to support the illegal North Korean nuclear program, it would be a piece of cake for China to provide Russia with surface-to-air missiles, drones, intelligence equipment, armored fighting vehicles, and logistical support vehicles.
The supply of communications equipment is already evident, and it may specifically be quasi-weapons “intelligence equipment. There are many ways to provide weapons to the neighboring comrade nation of Russia, including “seizure,” the illegal transshipment of goods between vessels at sea, rail transport, overland trucking, and air transport.
As for the “set-taking,” the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer Oyodo and other vessels have discovered many sites in the waters around 250 km east of Shanghai and 400 km south of Shanghai, both of which are closer to China than to the Japan-China median line in the East China Sea. Although on the high seas, these areas are within China’s claimed jurisdiction.
Furthermore, since the crackdown on joint multilateral surveillance activities has become more severe in recent years, seizures are said to be actively taking place in waters near Chinese territorial waters, where it is more difficult for Japanese and Western vessels to detect them.
In fact, from January to August 2019, North Korea repeatedly smuggled out approximately 3.7 million tons of coal, worth an estimated 40.6 billion yen, of which over 70%, or about 2.8 million tons, was found to have been transported to Chinese ports through the method of seizure. In March 2020, it was also revealed that a Chinese-registered barge was involved in the seizure.
Tomio Suetsugu, former commander of the Maritime Self-Defense Force’s Intelligence Operations Group (now the Fleet Intelligence Group), noted, “It is hard to believe that Chinese law enforcement agencies (Chinese maritime police) are unaware that tankers of unknown nationality are sailing in waters near their territorial waters, and furthermore, that there has been set-taking with a North Korean tanker.
Sanction-breaking settlements would be impossible without the willingness of the Chinese leadership to provide active support and the protection of “pretending not to notice.
In addition, given the history of how the China Coast Guard Bureau (equivalent to Japan’s Coast Guard), which was a subordinate organization of the former non-military State Oceanic Administration of China, was replaced in 2018 by a subordinate organization of the People’s Armed Police under the direct command of President Xi Jinping, and its equipment, personnel, and armament were greatly increased, the missed set-taking is considered a deliberate sanctions violation There is no rational explanation other than.
Russia’s “Big North Korea-ization” to Fishermen
North Korea, with its meager national strength, cannot survive without food, fuel, and seizure support from China, and Russia, which has reached an economic deadlock due to its invasion of Ukraine with little chance of success, likewise will not survive without military supplies and financial assistance from China.
Thus, Russia is determined to become a “big North Korea,” and in exchange for the provision of weapons, it will be “kept alive” by China by buying and selling and settling in yuan, and will be sucked down to the bone by China. This will further enhance the authority of President Xi Jinping, and China will gain a windfall.
As Russia, weary from its wars of aggression, clamors for weapons, Chinese and third-country weapons and technology will be sold to Russia by Chinese private companies and Chinese businessmen, who are set up “well outside the control of the central government,” to satisfy their commercial pursuits. In the dark, the Chinese and third world weapons and technology will be sold to Russia to satisfy their commercial interests.
In the dark, it is highly likely that businessmen and private companies from friendly countries of China and Russia, which are ubiquitous around the world, will act as brokers.