The Xi Jinping Regime Plotting the New Chinese Empire and Japan’s Response: Anti-Japanese Attitudes and Ambitions Aligned with the Military
Foreign Affairs and Security Studies Group
The biggest international challenge of the 21st century is dealing with the People’s Republic of China. It has been called “the greatest concern of the 21st century. Threats are the sum total of “intentions” and “capabilities”.
1. Confront the “threat” of China’s attempt to build a “New Chinese Empire”.
The biggest international challenge of the 21st century is dealing with the People’s Republic of China. It has been called “the greatest concern of the 21st century”. Threats are the sum total of “intentions” and “capabilities”. Capability is the totality of military, diplomatic, economic, and cultural power, but the centerpiece is military power. Intent is aim, and here lies the essence of the threat. China’s intentions and ideology can be summarized in the following three points
Restoration of lost territory: the aim is to recover the “territory of the Qing Dynasty” and build a new Chinese empire.
To seize the territory stolen and lost by the Western powers in the 19th century and build a New Chinese Order. That is China’s aim. The legitimate territory they must recover is the “territory of the Qing dynasty,” which is the territory of the greatest print in Chinese history, and the Fourth Central Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China (the “Four China Plenum”), held in September 2009, was the result of the “tactics” (intentions) of “self-defense” that China has been promoting since the Deng Xiaoping era. (The tactic of hiding and honing your skills and waiting for the right time) has ended. Today, China is putting it into practice. First it targets Nepal, Siam (Thailand), Burma (Myanmar), and the Philippines, and then it extends its reach to the Korean peninsula and the Senkaku Islands and Okinawa (former Ryukyu Kingdom).
Chinese ideology: a unique view of territory without borders that sees all of Asia as belonging to China.
Chinese thought (Huayi order) was an extreme electoral ideology that originated in the middle reaches of the Yellow River (also referred to as the Middle Plains). Originally, it was an idea that prided itself on the Han Chinese for realizing the Confucian ideal of royal politics, and prided itself on China being the center of the world and its culture and ideology as the most valuable. It often surfaced as a fierce exclusionary ideology at times of foreign political crisis in Chinese history.
China has a traditional view of territory based on “Chinese ideology”. China’s territorial outlook is based on the “Chinese ideology” that “the whole world belongs to China”. In this view of territory, there is no concept of national borders that says China has reached this point. Today, China claims all the territories it conquered in its heyday as “sacred and indivisible territory of China”. This is nothing short of expansionism and hegemony. One of the core elements of China’s national strategy, backed by Chinese ideology, is to become the sole ally of Asia.
‘Communism’: ‘Recovery of Lost Ground’ and ‘Chinese Ideology’ Strengthened, the Main Factor of External Hegemony and Repression
Although it has introduced a market economy, China is still a socialist/communist country. It is wrong to perceive that communism is just a signboard because the system of governance is a one-party communist dictatorship.
The Statute and Outline of the Communist Party of China position Marxism-Leninism as follows. “Marxism-Leninism clarifies the laws of development of the history of human society, its basic principles are correct and it has a powerful vitality” (People’s Daily, Japanese edition website). The influence of communist ideology in China is the most fundamental one. It strengthens the “lost land recovery” and “Chinese ideology” already mentioned, and is the main cause of the current foreign hegemonic actions, the repression in Tibet and Uighur and various internal conflicts.
2. counter China and Xi Jinping’s regime with an “active defense strategy” that includes a pre-emptive strike
Sun Tzu’s Art of War, which uses strange tactics to deceive the enemy
The core of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s strategic philosophy is “Sun Tzu’s Art of War”, which has formally adopted the “Sun Tzu Military Officer’s Manual of Military Law” compiled by the Academy of Military Science in 2006 as its training material; in the book “Tale of War” (Liberation Army Press) published in 2010, Sun Tzu’s Art of War, the first chapter of the Sijiquan volume, “The Art of War is a casuistry” is described as “The Key to Recruiting Soldiers”. As “we often use conspiracy and chicanery to break up the enemy forces”.
On the other hand, Western military methods are based on the Clausewitzian method of warfare, which focuses on the concentration of military force on important enemy points by the military. If this is not done, China, with its “Sun Tzu’s Art of War,” could lose its footing, and this is one of the reasons why the threat is growing.
Active defensive strategy” that includes a preemptive strike, and “approach blocking/area denial” strategy
China is based on the “active defense strategy” founded by Mao Zedong. At the level of strategy to fight with all its forces, it is based on the principle of “latecomers” (i.e. a strategy of attacking back after being attacked, and using vast areas of land to draw in and annihilate the enemy), but at the level of local wars where the battle areas and objectives are limited, it advocates an aggressive offensive, including a pre-emptive attack.
In the 1980s, recognizing that a global war would not be waged for a long period of time, China’s most powerful leader Deng Xiaoping launched a strategy of “active defense” in which he would intercept the enemy outside the country’s borders and shift the emphasis to dealing with local wars, including disputes over territory and territorial waters. Among these, ballistic missiles are the development of anti-ship missiles targeting U.S. aircraft carriers and major naval vessels, as well as the development of the Terminal Guided Ballistic Missile (DF21D), which can circumvent anti-ship missiles and ballistic missile defenses. This poses a major threat to the U.S. Navy and Maritime Self-Defense Force.
The “Approach Denial/Area Denial” (A2/AD) strategy is to block the approach of the U.S. Navy and Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) and deny them access to local areas. It is aimed at unifying Taiwan and furthermore, building a new Chinese order in Asia.
The Xi Jinping administration is likely to make inroads into foreign markets in pursuit of a “proud China
For the next two terms and 10 years, until about 2025, it will have to deal with the hardline Xi Jinping regime against Japan. After the 18th Communist Party Congress, the new Xi Jinping regime set sail on November 15, 2012, at the First Central Plenum. The Xi regime will inherit the Hu Jintao line, but will gradually change course. Xi ended without using the word “peace” even once in his press conference that day. The content of this suggested that he might shift his foreign policy to a hard line with patriotism at the forefront.
General Secretary Xi has strong ties to the military and could become the first leader to completely control the military since Deng Xiaoping, who was a military political commissa. In order to do so, General Secretary Xi must be well aware that the whole of China is riddled with corruption and undermining the dignity of society. Also, China now has a time bomb in its financial system. In the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers’ collapse in 2009-10, the massive amount of money lent by financial institutions to maintain high growth has encouraged state-owned enterprises to waste money and local governments to invest in inflation, creating a bubble. The bubble is on the verge of bursting.
There is no hope for political reform in the Xi Jinping regime. Xi’s belief in the legitimacy of Communist Party rule makes it unlikely that he will aggressively expand elections that could shake his party’s control or allow for a multi-party system that allows for regime change.
China now faces an ordeal. Public discontent is manifesting itself in more than 150,000 riotous incidents a year. But it cannot afford a repeat of the Tiananmen Square massacre, in which it turned its weapons on its people. Where Mr. Xi’s “proud China” is going, it is likely to go abroad. At a military conference held in Beijing last fall on November 16, President Xi Jinping, dressed in military uniform, stressed that “we must adhere to the position that preparation for military struggle is of utmost importance and resolutely defend the interests of national sovereignty, security and development”.
3. “Japan should undertake legal arrangements to prevent indirect and direct aggression
Even if a nation is directly attacked, it must be able to withstand the attack and fight back, and have a system in place to protect its citizens as a nation to minimize the damage. This is the ability to repel attacks, endure and recover, and also to have the ability to retaliate. Only when a nation has the ability to retaliate against an attacker can it be said to have true defense capabilities. Japan is fundamentally dependent on the U.S. military presence in Japan for this retaliatory power. Therefore, Japan’s defense capability is only complete with the presence of US forces in Japan.
However, in the debate about US strategy in Asia, there is also a discussion about withdrawal from Japan and South Korea. The theory of abandoning the First Island Line has begun to emerge, with the deployment of U.S. troops in Guam, Australia, Hawaii, and elsewhere in response. At that time, our country must know that we will be fully within China’s sphere of control. Japan is on the brink of that.
Enact Anti-Spying Laws!
In order to have a true deterrent, it is essential to have a system that prevents indirect aggression (espionage). Stopping indirect aggression means stopping espionage. However, there is no law in our country that makes espionage itself a crime.
Urge the enactment of the Emergency Basic Law and the limited exercise of the right of collective self-defense!
First, there is a need for (1) an anti-espionage law and (2) an emergency basic law. The lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake have made clear the limitations of existing laws in emergency situations. In addition, we need to enhance integrated U.S.-Japanese action both inside and outside the region, namely, (3) the exercise of the right of collective self-defense. The exercise of the right of collective self-defense, too, must be limited in light of the current situation. This is all predicated on the premise that everything will be completed by amending the Constitution.
4. arm the people with the ideology of refusing to be enslaved by a dictatorship
Some participants in the anti-base struggle in Okinawa argue that if the U.S. military presence in Japan disappeared, Okinawa would be strongly influenced by China and incorporated into the “Chinese sphere,” which is fine with them. During the Ryukyu Dynasty, Okinawa was a tributary state to the Chinese dynasty. However, the Qing never invaded the Ryukyu Kingdom and massacred it. So they say it’s okay for the U.S. military to leave.
In a sense, the concept of territory during the dynasty was vague and ambiguous. Hence, it was mildly administered insofar as it was amenable to the surrounding tributary states. However, China, which became a “modern sovereign state,” was not a dynasty. Its territory, territorial waters, territory and airspace are clearly defined and its sovereignty is strictly defined to what extent. Naturally, there will be conflicts with neighboring regions and nations. Furthermore, China is a one-party communist dictatorship, and it tries to clarify the extent of its dictatorial power. This is what is meant by the departure of the U.S. military and its integration into the Chinese sphere.
The people must be united in the belief that they will not be subjugated to the servitude of a communist imperialist state, that they will resolutely defend our sovereignty and territory. This is the meaning of arming the national idea.
Japan-Korea defense cooperation should be promoted with the aim of building a free and open maritime order.
Striving to build a free and open international and maritime order is essential for peace and prosperity in Asia and the world. Japan is a maritime power in Asia. In the future, we must contribute to the building of a free and open maritime order in greater cooperation and coordination with all maritime nations, including our ally, the United States. This will be a strong expression of our country’s willingness to involve China in international rules.
But the East China Sea is now about to fall into China’s hands. In order to defend the East China Sea, it is not enough for the United States and Japan and the United States and South Korea to work together. Without defense cooperation between Japan and South Korea, the free East China Sea cannot be protected. Japan and South Korea have territorial disputes and issues of historical awareness, but they should firmly determine where their priorities lie.
6. strengthen cooperation with Asian countries to halt China’s southward advance
China’s southward expansion policy is in full swing. China’s state-sponsored expansion into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is remarkable. China’s aim for this region is, for the moment, to procure resources and secure its distribution channels. Of course, there is also the aspect of a long-term strategic move to establish hegemony in Asia, just like in the game of Go, but first of all the objective of securing resources has been given priority. In terms of actions aimed at the resources themselves, what is conspicuous is China’s coercive actions in the South China Sea, backed by its military might.
It is not only the United States, but Japan as well, that can support Vietnam and the Philippines, which have been subjected to the boiling water of China’s move as soon as a power vacuum is created. If Japan does not support these ASEAN maritime nations in both the security and economic spheres, Japan itself could find itself in direct threat of China in the future. If the intentions of China are not broken through at an early stage, not only the South China Sea, but also the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan may eventually become a “Chinese sea.